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May 31, 2009

Negative physical descriptions

The Republicans at least have an excuse for pushing this poison. They are desperate. The trio of Pillsbury doughboys now leading the party — Rush Limbaugh, Newt Gingrich, Cheney — have variously cemented the G.O.P.’s brand as a whites-only men’s club by revoking Colin Powell’s membership and smearing the first Latina Supreme Court nominee as a “reverse racist.”

Who Is to Blame for the Next Attack? by Frank Rich

I wonder if there is any political commentator in America who would dare to make a visual metaphor for three leaders of any other race, gender or color. Imagine calling three fat, black female leaders Aunt Jemimas, or calling short and high energy Mexican leader Speedy Gonzales. And lest you think that somehow these are blatantly racist characters of a different caliber, Speedy has his defenders:

Many people in today's world choose to look at the stereotypes in a negative light, but the more one pays attention and watches each of the Speedy films, it becomes evident that only the villains are portrayed as 'stereotyped' or 'racist', and even these are quite tame. In fact, Speedy is actually a virtuous, caring and heroic character, a mouse superhero of sorts who uses his speed to help others.

Here Today Gone Tamale.
And while surely Aunt Jemima has a stereotyped past, the modern incarnation Aunt Jemima is really very similar to Betty Crocker but for the color of her skin.

Posted by OneEyedMan at 7:31 AM | Comments (0)

May 29, 2009

Not a helpful post

In "Why Steve Sailer is wrong", I find the usually excellent Tyler Cowen has offered us his hopes rather than his best insight into the future of IQ and race. We wanted his wisdom and an explanation of cutting edge research in IQ and race and instead we got a pile of wishful thinking with more discussion of the controversy of racial differences than than science. I hope other readers of Anathem will join me when I call for a solid application of Diax's Rake. Wishing for something to be true does not make it so.

One theory he offers:
"For instance it is quite possible that groups with higher measured IQs simply have been on an "improvement track" for a longer period of time. "

There hasn't been much natural selection over this time scale. Therefore this is either a Lamarkian argument or a claim that groups vary in their environmental treatments of IQ. My understanding of the Flynn effect is that it is found predominantly on the lower half of the IQ scale and that the leading hypothesis was that it was a product of a more complex childhood environment, especially the technology we use and the complexity of the entertainment we consume.

Since the Flynn effect works on the lower IQ fraction of the group, one would have expected it to close racial gaps if the Flynn cause was evenly distributed across racial groups. If it hasn't, then what is the fraction of the explanation explainable by the cause of the Flynn effect being unevenly distributed, what fraction bu between group genetic variation, and what by other (non-Flynn effect) environmental causes? The average home of a minority in America closer to the wealth (measured in goods, not dollars) and complexity of a white middle class household than it has ever been, so I believe little of the continuing gap, if any is explainable by uneven distribution of Flynn factors.

Posted by OneEyedMan at 7:22 AM | Comments (0)

May 28, 2009

Quote of the day

...[T]he principal who, faced with two children who were caught fighting on the playground, sternly says: "It doesn't matter who started the fight, it only matters who ends it." Of course it matters who started the fight. The principal may not have access to good information about this critical fact, but if so, he should say so, not dismiss the importance of who threw the first punch. Let a parent try punching the principal, and we'll see how far "It doesn't matter who started it" gets in front of a judge. But to adults it is just inconvenient that children fight, and it matters not at all to their convenience which child started it, it is only convenient that the fight end as rapidly as possible.

Pretending to be Wise

I love this. This lesson has much to teach us about international relations.

Posted by OneEyedMan at 8:41 PM | Comments (0)

Floppy ears are probably genetically linked to friendliness

Early in the process of domestication, Belyaev noted, most domestic animals had undergone the same basic morphological and physiological changes. Their bodies changed in size and proportions, leading to the appearance of dwarf and giant breeds. The normal pattern of coat color that had evolved as camouflage in the wild altered as well. Many domesticated animals are piebald, completely lacking pigmentation in specific body areas. Hair turned wavy or curly, as it has done in Astrakhan sheep, poodles, domestic donkeys, horses, pigs, goats and even laboratory mice and guinea pigs. Some animals' hair also became longer (Angora type) or shorter (rex type).

Tails changed, too. Many breeds of dogs and pigs carry their tails curled up in a circle or semicircle. Some dogs, cats and sheep have short tails resulting from a decrease in the number of tail vertebrae. Ears became floppy. As Darwin noted in chapter 1 of On the Origin of Species, "not a single domestic animal can be named which has not in some country drooping ears" - a feature not found in any wild animal except the elephant.

Another major evolutionary consequence of domestication is loss of the seasonal rhythm of reproduction. Most wild animals in middle latitudes are genetically programmed to mate once a year, during mating seasons cued by changes in daylight. Domestic animals at the same latitudes, however, now can mate and bear young more than once a year and in any season.

The domestication of the russian silver fox. (40 year fast track evolution)

The amazing story of the silver fox and Dmitry K. Belyaev, which provided evidence that simply selecting for friendliness could create many of the common features of domesticated animals. I first read an astonishing article about this as an undergraduate, but I haven't been able to find it since. I wonder if this is it. Thanks to Shepherd either way.

Update:
Checking out the article with pictures, I'm now pretty sure that this was the article
Early Canid Domestication: The Farm-Fox Experiment

Posted by OneEyedMan at 5:28 PM | Comments (3)

May 27, 2009

A few comments on comments on the origins of the crisis

The following are a couple of comments I have on a few quotations from a round up of quotes on the financial markets role in the origins of the present recession.What Good Is It, Anyway?.

Financial innovation, he says, is not like real-world innovation; the former only creates value if it solves an existing market imperfection. by Mike Rortybomb
Surely this is a criticism of real world innovation as well. If I make a machine that makes the finest metal triangles the world has ever seen but the world doesn't need any better metal triangles, then then is that innovation? Whenever you invent something where the benefits or costs of the innovation are uncertain has this problem. It may be more common in financial innovation than in mechanical engineering. Science fiction author Theodore Sturgeon once said "Sure, 90% of science fiction is crud. That's because 90% of everything is crud.". Maybe 90% of Innovation is crud.

[O]ne would hope and expect that between sell-side productivity gains and a rise in the sophistication of the buy side, any increase in America’s financing needs would be met without any rise in the percentage of the economy taken up by the financial sector. by Felix Salmon
I don't agree with this. It could simply be that more complicated financial services are luxury goods because they hedge lower probability states of the world. This could happen if setting up markets is expensive, then we'll set up hedging markets for the states we believe are most likely. It also need not be true that innovation today reduce profits tomorrow. Think of the movies. Movie technology continues to advance, but certain things need to be made anew with each movie. Those unique factors continue to be restricted, and so profits may increase with movie innovation as the limited factors get a greater share of revenue.

Having worked in fixed income for an investment bank during this time, it was my observation that most people working in the securitization, valuation and risk management process believed that what the banks were left holding was reasonably well modeled and approximately priced properly. Ex post, we were either phenomenally unlucky or a lot of people were wrong (more likely). Markets are information aggregation mechanisms, but they aggregate and attract information, but they don't make it. Capitalism doesn't protect you against mistaken beliefs in financial markets unless there are guys with the truth and in aggregate really deep pockets and functioning shorting markets.

Posted by OneEyedMan at 8:11 AM | Comments (0)

May 26, 2009

Another fact for today

As for dining out for personal enjoyment, that too frequently becomes the black hole of a family's budget. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 12% of a family's household budget is spent on food, but 43% of that line item is gobbled up at restaurants.

Finding A Value Restaurant Is Like Finding A Value Stock

This chart makes it seem like people are cutting way back on food, as does a blog post Time to short Jenny Craig?

Both reminded me of the section of the paper A Model of Housing in the Presence of Adjustment Costs where they use food consumption data from the PSID as a proxy for pure consumption (a good with no durable, capital like aspect). It seems the Wall Street Journal is reporting (Consumers Cut Food Spending Sharply) a large fall in food expenditures. We could read this as a big shock to housing wealth causing consumption to fall to fuel savings.

However, a few caveats. I did some checking around, and it seems that the decline in food expenditures does contain restaurant expenditures in addition to food at home. As we saw above, eating out is a big chunk of food expenditures, at least in part because eating out is more expensive. The BEA is reforming the categories they use for the personal consumption survey, starting in July they will split the current and Food and Tobacco into food and beverages purchased for off-premise consumption and food services and accommodations. So after the next decline in housing prices, we will actually know if it declines in response to changes in housing value. Silver linings and all that.

Posted by OneEyedMan at 7:16 PM | Comments (0)

Why is Califorrnia is such a budget mess?

I have reason to question that general fund budget chart I posted last week (How high tax is California) because of a great piece from reason:

In FY 1990-91, the state took in over $38 billion in General Fund revenues. In FY 2008-09 revenues are $102 billion. Based on these revenues, if California had simply limited its spending increases to the 4.38 percent average increase in the state’s consumer price index and population growth each year since FY 1990-91, instead of a $42 billion deficit, the state would be sitting on a $15 billion surplus this year.

California Spending by the Numbers: A Historic Look at State Spending from Gov. Pete Wilson to Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger

Fortunately, now we know what to cut. We just whip out the 1990-1991 budget and cut everything down to the staffing and funding levels of that year but adjusted to today's population and prices. That would cut $57 billion, and we can play around with the $15 billion surplus to meet new needs and address federal unfunded mandates.

Posted by OneEyedMan at 2:18 PM | Comments (0)

Is this true?

Use of the word "experts" is one of the great tells in journalism. It usually means something close to "those people I cherry-picked to agree with my thesis." It is an artificial and scientific-sounding reputation-enhancer, one used in stark contrasts to the way that critics of said thesis will be portrayed in the same article.

The California Scare Campaign

One more tool to be a skeptical reader.

Posted by OneEyedMan at 10:08 AM | Comments (0)

Identity and ordinary politics

Judge Sotomayor has one of those fabulous American dream self made women stories where growing up with a single mother and in urban poverty she went to some of the best schools in the world and rose to fame and power. Now she will likely be appointed to the supreme court.

President Barack Obama will nominate New York Judge Sonia Sotomayor to the Supreme Court, a choice that would elevate the first Hispanic to the highest court in the land. ... Ms. Sotomayor's Puerto Rican heritage would make her the first Hispanic to become a Supreme Court justice -- though some court historians say that Justice Benjamin Cardozo, who served on the high court from 1932 to 1938 and was a distant descendent of Portuguese Jews, would qualify for that distinction.'s Puerto Rican heritage would make her the first Hispanic to become a Supreme Court justice -- though some court historians say that Justice Benjamin Cardozo, who served on the high court from 1932 to 1938 and was a distant descendent of Portuguese Jews, would qualify for that distinction. ... In 1995, she sided with the baseball players' union in issuing an injunction preventing the owners from establishing new work rules with a new collective-bargaining agreement. That ruling led to the end of a seven-month strike.

She was part of a three-judge panel that decided a case recently argued before the Supreme Court about the validity of a civil-service exam for firefighters in New Haven, Conn. Ms. Sotomayor was part of a panel that decided the test could be deemed invalid because no minority applicants passed.

Mankiw is concerned that the SCOTUS appointee is a spender, but I wonder if she has so much money coming to her from either her judge's pension or even higher income from returning to private practice that it made little sense for her to save more. After all, she probably expects to live until at least her late eighties and work until she can't, so maybe saving doesn't make much sense.

I'm more concerned that this woman is famous for a few cases with an ideological feel to them. I know next to nothing about the baseball case, but from what I know about the firemen exam case, that seems the wrong way to have gone.

I am somewhat amused that there is dispute as to who is Hispanic enough to count as the first Hispanic Supreme Court Justice. That Obama is half African and has no ancestors who were slaves yet still he was qualified to be called the first Black President, would seem to be evidence that no matter how long you've been in the states, a race is a race. Perhaps it has to do Cordozo looked more white than Judge Sotomayo, or that he served when many American Latinos thought of themselves as either white or American Indian and not as a separate race. Maybe we should think of her as the first Supreme Court justice to know that she is Hispanic. Thank goodness for progress.

Posted by OneEyedMan at 6:40 AM | Comments (0)

May 25, 2009

Funny evolution discussion

In Are Dog Breeds Actually Different Species?, Scientific American writer Steve Mirsky takes on critics of evolution, saying that we should call the different breeds of dogs different species as a reminder that evolution is real and taking place in our time. Although somewhat of a smarmy point, the article does make some interesting points about what actually makes for a distinct species.

However, an astonishing comment comes from the Slashdot discussion, which points out how mistaken this line of argument really is:
"Just remember if you argue that dog breeds are different species, especially the case of the mastiff and chihuahua, or the teacup yorkie and newfoundland, these different species are verifiably the result of intelligent design. Selection was involved, but not natural selection."
Should We Just Call Dog Breeds a Different Species?

That said, the example of dogs being uninterested in mating due to massive size differences is false by example. My father once heard a dog screaming on a cold winter day in Michigan. He looked around, witnessing a tiny male dog mating with a much larger female dog. The reason he was screaming is that when the female stood up she lifted him completely into the air and he was dangling by his penis. Perhaps this is evidence that they are becoming different species and could not practically mate, but this is also evidence that they would still mate if they could.

Posted by OneEyedMan at 11:15 AM | Comments (0)

What do you make of this

On Saturday morning I opened up the box of my game Citadels, a board game that came highly recommended. I read the rules and it looks fun. Then I flipped through the cards you use to play the game. Maybe I'm seeing things, but I wanted to draw your attention to the art on the cards for the thief and the merchant. The thief has the darkest skin of any player and only the witch has a similar over-sized and unattractive nose. This strikes me as somewhere between racist stereotyping and simply insensitive. Your thoughts?

Posted by OneEyedMan at 9:58 AM | Comments (0)

Interesting fact of the day

I have long wondered why are there so many regional Federal Reserve branches (12 plus the board). Here is one reason:

"The reason why the banks were put in the mix by [President Woodrow] Wilson in 1913, the reason it was structured the way it was structured, was so that you could offset the political power of Washington and the money center in New York with the regional banks. They represented Main Street.

.
Don't Monetize the Debt

If we really are in a liquidity trap, then I'm with Hamilton, monetizing the debt would be a fabulous way to IMPROVE our balance sheet in anticipation of our impending entitlements costs. However, I don't strongly believe that, and the alternative seems a risk of significant decline in the value of the dollar (WRT other currencies) and domestic inflation. The markets are saying future interest rates will be low, and we should try to use that in our inferences about future inflation. We need to learn from those market lessons but also be sure we learn the right lesson. Mark Twain once said, "We should learn from an experience all that is in it and no more! We should not be like the cat that sat on a hot stove lid. It will never again sit on a hot stove lid, and that is well, but it will never sit on a cold one either." Does that mean that the dollar will be strong and inflation low, allowing us to partially monetize the debt safely? Or is it instead a comment that markets believe that monetization will stop, the Fed will reassert their independence, and deficit spending will decline? I don't know, maybe it is indicating that both are possible.

Posted by OneEyedMan at 8:38 AM | Comments (0)

May 22, 2009

How high tax is California

Source: Uncharted Waters: Navigating the Social and Economic Context of California’s Budget

How Does California Compare?
Revenues as a Percentage of Personal Income

						 Rank	California	US

Total State and Local Own Source (2005-06)	 17	 16.96%		 16.29%

Total State and Local Taxes (2005-06)		 13	 11.73%		 11.23%

State Taxes (2007-08)				 13	 7.57%		 6.60%

Local Taxes (2005-06)				 32	 3.76%		 4.52%

State Individual Income Tax (2007-08)		 4	 3.60%		 2.37%

State Corporate Income Tax (2007-08)		 5	 0.76%		 0.44%

State and Local General Sales Taxes (2005-06)	 16	 2.89%		 2.65%

State General Sales Tax (2007-08)		 26	 2.06%		 2.03%

State and Local Property Tax (2005-06)		 36	 2.67%		 3.37%

State Motor Fuels Taxes (2007-08)		 45	 0.22%		 0.31%

State Tobacco Tax (2007-08)			 46	 0.07%	 	0.14%

State Alcoholic Beverage Sales Taxes (2007-08)	 41	 0.02%		 0.04%

Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis and US Census Bureau

I don't understand some of these numbers. I though the California sales tax rate was 7.25% which is number 1. So that makes the two taxes generating most of the state's revenue, sales and income, among the highest in the land.

This is how the money gets spent:

Figure 5
2008-09 Budget Package General Fund Spending by Major Program Area
(Dollars in Millions)
	Actual 2006-07	Estimated 2007-08	Enacted 2008-09	Change From 2007-08
				Amount	Percent
K-12 Education	$39,255.00	$39,485.00	$40,018.00	$534.00	1.40%
Higher Education	11190	11780	12070	290	2.5
Health	19235	20095	20705	610	3
Social Services	9777	9631	10415	784	8.1
Criminal Justice	11856	13186	13221	34	0.3
Transportation	2980	1416	1432	16	1.1
Resources and Environmental Protection	2054	2060	1912	-148	-7.2
All other	5066	5679	3627	-2053	-36.1
Totals	$101,413.00	$103,333.00	$103,401.00	$68.00	0.10%

California Spending Plan 2008–09 The Budget Act and Related Legislation

How has it changed over time? I was surprised to learn that most of the big increases in Real Per Capita General Fund Spending happened decades ago:
* 1959-60 to 1969-70: 8.8%
* 1969-70 to 1979-80: 6.8%
* 1979-80 to 1989-90: 0.0%
* 1989-90 to 2002-03: 1.0%
And with a high long term trend:
* 1959-60 to 2002-03: 6.1%
In fact, this chat that spending per capita is approximately flat over the last ten years

How will they fill the budget hole?

The Democrats who control the Legislature do not want major spending cuts, but so far they don't have a plan for closing the deficit. And if their solution is higher taxes and more borrowing, they will probably not have enough Republican votes to get the two-thirds approval needed for passage.
...
The governor's cutbacks could include ending the state's main welfare program for the poor, eliminating health coverage for about 1.5 million poor children, halting cash grants for about 77,000 college students, shortening the school year by seven days, laying off thousands of state workers and teachers, slashing money for state parks and releasing thousands of prisoners before their sentences are finished.

California faces its day of fiscal reckoning
I predict that nothing calamitous will occur to the state as a result of these spending cuts. Anyone want to bet and propose some terms?

Posted by OneEyedMan at 4:25 PM | Comments (0)

Still more web comics

Amazing Super Powers web comic. Dark, hilarious, and occasionally over the line.

Posted by OneEyedMan at 2:03 PM | Comments (0)

Will higher automotive fuel economy make us better off

The great irony of Mr. Obama's fuel efficiency proposals is that they may worsen emissions of these harmful gases. By the White House's own calculation (which many observers believe to be quite conservative), the new rules, when combined with earlier proposed increases in Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards, will increase the average price of a new car by $1,300. Herein lies the problem.

In today's automobile fleet, the majority of the pollution comes from the oldest, dirtiest cars. In fact, the dirtiest 10% of the cars account for more than 50% of smog and carbon monoxide. The dirtiest one-third of the fleet accounts for more than 80% of the pollution. That is because the U.S. government has, for 39 years now under successive versions of the Clean Air Act, required automakers to meet ever-tightening standards for tailpipe emissions from new cars. When it comes to smog, carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides and particulates that new SUV is a lot cleaner than an old, poorly-tuned compact.
...
The Obama fuel efficiency plan may also contribute to a significant increase in highway deaths as vehicles are required to quickly meet the new CAFE standard and will likely become lighter in weight as a result. According to a study completed in 2001 by the National Research Council (NRC), the last major increase in CAFE standards, mandated by the Energy Policy and Conservation Act of 1975, required about a 50% increase in fuel economy (to 27.5 mpg by model year 1985 from an average of 18 mpg in 1978). The NRC study concluded that the subsequent downsizing and down-weighting of vehicles, "while resulting in significant fuel savings, also resulted in a safety penalty." Specifically, the NRC estimated that in 1993 there were between 1,300 and 2,600 motor vehicle crash deaths that would not have occurred if cars were as heavy as they were in 1976.

Light Cars Are Dangerous Cars

I have some friends that feel that CAFE is as close to a climate policy as we are going to get. That is, though a far cry from a meaningful carbon tax and / or fuel tax, the best we can do and will push us in the right direction. I cannot agree. They seem to be an enemy of effective environmental policy. The criticism in the WSJ above seems a bit overdone. The stated purpose of this environmental policy is mostly carbon reduction, not generic pollution reduction. While it is true that the pollutants discussed above are overwhelmingly emitted by a minority of polluters, this is not the case with carbon dioxide. CO2 is put out by ever car as it operates, and higher efficiency engines will reduce the CO2 per mile emitted in new cars. Of course all the criticisms of inter-temporal substitution apply, more expensive new cars keeps less expensive polluters on the road. Also, by making driving cheaper per mile (through lower fuel costs) could increase the total amount of driving. So this policy stinks, but the reason offered is somewhat misleading.

Posted by OneEyedMan at 7:22 AM | Comments (0)

May 21, 2009

Quote of the day

'There are three great destroyers of mankind," wrote Benjamin Franklin in 1748. "Plague, Famine, and Hero. Plague and Famine destroy your persons only, and leave your goods to your Heirs; but Hero, when he comes, takes life and goods together; his business and glory it is, to destroy man and the works of man."

The Naysayers' Achievement

This is a strong reminder of the behavior of Octavian and Julius Ceaser, who's exploits I've been following in the TV show Rome.

Posted by OneEyedMan at 10:25 AM | Comments (0)

May 19, 2009

Economics of contagion

We can all be glad that swine flu is looking likely to top out at quite contagious rather than quite contagious and incredibly lethal. That's some good luck, in no small part because America isn't terribly well equipped to deal with contagious infections. In Contagion Nation, the Center for Economic and Policy Research lays out one of the reasons: Unlike most every developed country, America doesn't guarantee its workers paid sick days. As such, workers who think they might be getting sick frequently come to work anyway. They can't afford to forgo the day's paycheck. And then they get everyone else sick, too.... "The U.S. is the only country among 22 countries ranked highly in terms of economic and human development that does not guarantee that workers receive paid sick days or paid sick leave," write the authors. "Under current U.S. labor law, employers are not required to provide short-term paid sick days or longer-term paid sick leave." This following graph tells the story well. Click for a larger version.

...
CEPR ends with the economic argument: "Each year millions of American workers go to work sick, lowering their own productivity and that of their coworkers and potentially spreading illness to their coworkers and customers." I'm willing to cut employers some slack: Many don't offer paid sick days because they don't think doing so will make them money. That is to say, they make marginally more money by letting their workers fall ill. That may be a good decision for the employer. But it's not good for the worker. And it's an appalling state of affairs. Residents of the world's richest nation should be able to stay home when they have the flu.

Contagion Nation

If getting other employees sick is terrible, why would firms want sick employees at work? Surely it must be that the private costs exceed the benefits.

European welfare states have made sick days into just another entitlement to more vacation, and employees thing little using sick days because they don't feel like working on Monday or Friday. This all is at enormous expense to productivity and efficiency (When Work Ethic Disapears). Enacting a national employer funded sick policy is the economic version of the stupid and expensive security policies to combat terrorism. That is, a permanent and expensive change in the way we organize our economy in exchange for a unknown and probably small benefit on a contingency that may never occur.

Employees should bear the majority of lost labor wages due to illness risk because that is the only way to get them to reveal their true productivity and health. Having employees purchase disability insurance is the way to catch those with the bad luck to have an illness that compromises their ability to work.

If, as Mr Klein agrees, the private benefits of keeping people working when sick are larger than the private costs, then this really isn't an employer issue at all. A fair government policy would have the federal government pay for the benefits of keeping people at home. One possibility is to take money out of your social security account to pay for current sick days. You would probably want to discount those benefits to account for the time value of money since social security benefits are paid out many years later. Since sick people probably die sooner, this would be a fair way of giving people with shorter life expectancy a larger share of the social security benefits. On the other hand, if you are faking it, by taking the money out of social security you really just harm yourself later. With the right interest rate / penalty on sickness withdrawals you could cut down on shirking.

A vastly simpler system that addresses Mr. Klein's specific problem of our labor policy on infection transmission is simply to set up a special fund to pay lost wages to sick people who experience epidemic illness. The government could simply announce that they would pay the lost wage costs of staying home when infectious to anyone showing the right antibodies. That wouldn't require a complete change of economic policy.

Posted by OneEyedMan at 2:17 PM | Comments (0)

May 18, 2009

I'd heard Japanese justice was messed up, but wow

It seems the Japanese are growing tired of a prosecutors and police with the sole power to bring cases to trial. They are adding jury like systems to their criminal justice system so that citizens will be able to conduct grand jury like investigations and indictments.

None to soon it seems. Either the Japanese are bringing too few trials to court or they arebuilding illegitimate cases with false confessions. Take a look at these statistics.

Japan’s district courts had a conviction rate of 99.7 percent in 2006, the latest figures available, according to Japan’s Ministry of Internal Affairs. That compares with a 2007 rate of 89.7 percent in the U.S. and 81.3 percent in the UK, according to the U.S. Administrative Office of the Courts and the UK’s Ministry of Justice.

Japan’s judicial system has a presumption of guilt and relies too much on confessions obtained during weeks of police interrogation, human rights group Amnesty International says.

Japan Adopts Grand Juries, Jury Duty After Criminal Case Abuse

Of course, plea bargains play a huge role in American justice, and perhaps it would be better to count them as people who thought they'd lose in court anyway. If you count those as certain convictions, then since more than 90 percent of criminal convictions come from negotiated pleas, the real American rate would be more like 98.7% (89.7% * 10% + 90% * 100%), which is close to the Japanese rate. I wonder if plea bargaining is common in other countries.

Posted by OneEyedMan at 1:11 PM | Comments (0)

May 15, 2009

Comparing Democratic vote share with personal freedom

So the Democrats are the party of personal freedom while the Republicans want to meddle in your personal life? Check out this graph:

Personal Freedom, by State, State and Local Public Policies in the United States, Freedom in the 50 States: Index of Personal and Economic Freedom

I have long been skeptical that the Democrats deliver on their promises of personal freedom, but I'm quite surprised that the relationship is negative. I'm more impressed by how little variation is explained by the Democratic vote share than how much is explained by it. It isn't that the Democrats are the party of personal fascism as much as they are a party that appears to be a big tent when it comes to personal freedom.

Update:
The actual data (Download replication data for Freedom in the 50 States here.) seems to have a few variables I'd describe as economic freedoms rather social ones such as tax credits, right to work, and teacher licensing, but the majority seem to be about personal freedom (drugs, prostitution, gambling, stuff like that). I'll put the fields under the fold.

“Low-level” cultivation a misdemeanor? (1=yes, 0=no)
“Low-level” marijuana possession legal? (1=yes, 0=no)
Aggravated gambling is a felony (1=yes, 0=no)
Arrests for victimless crimes (age 18 and over) as ratio of all arrests
Arrests for victimless crimes per 100,000 population, age 18 and over
Asset forfeiture index
Auto liability insurance required? (1=yes, 0=no)
Bans on financial incentives to providers to withhold covered care? (=1 if yes, =0 if no)
Beer tax rates (dollars per gallon, ad valorem rates added under assumption of 10 per gallon)
Betting on greyhound or horse racing legalized? (=1 if statewide, =0.5 if local option, =0 if no)
Bicycle helmet law exists? (1=yes, 0=no)
Blood Test Required (=1 if yes, 0 if no)
Cable Deregulation Index (1-0.5*fccr)*(fclsifc-0.1*fcpbsr)
Casino gambling legalized? (=1 if statewide, =0.5 if local option, =0 if none: note that only state law is coded, not law applicable to sovereign Indian tribes)
Charitable gaming permitted? (=1 if yes, =0 if no)
Cigarette tax per pack of 20, including maximum local taxes, in dollars
COBRA continuation coverage expanded to firms with less than twenty employees? (=1 if yes, =0.5 if employers have option of continuation or conversion, =0 if no)
Compulsory school age, lower bound
Compulsory school age, upper bound
Deregulation Retail Sales of Natural Gas(=0 if no unbundling, =1 if partial unbundling, =2 if unbundling)
Does state have its own occupational safety and health agency? (1=yes, 0.5=for public employees only, 0=no)
Eminent domain reform index ((mreform+mprivate+mblight)*(1+(0.5*mconst)))
Endangered Species Act Statutes Animals Plants (=0 if no act or statute, =1 if act or statute, but only in regard to animals, =2 if act or statute in regard to both animals and plants)
Existence of state-mandated wind or beach insurance pool (1=yes, 0=no)
Express prohibition on Internet gambling? (1=yes, 0=no)
Extent of homeschool recordkeeping requirements (=2 if teaching materials/record of instruction, =1 if attendance, =0 if none)
Extent of private school curriculum control (=2 if detailed, =1 if general, =0 if none)
First offense of “high-level” marijuana possession a misdemeanor? (1=yes, 0=no)
First offense of “low-level” marijuana possession decriminalized? (1=yes, 0=misdemeanor, 2=fully legal)
For states with higher than federal minimum wage: (Gminraw/Gearnpc)*10; '0' otherwise
General right-to-work law? 1=yes, 0=no
Happy hour law? (1=yes, 0.5=locally, 0=no)
Health insurance mandates index (hmdindex+hmpindex+hmbindex)
High-risk health insurance pool? (=1 if yes, =0.5 if only for HIPAA-qualified, =0 if no)
Homeschooling explicitly permitted by statute? (=1 if yes, =0 if no, must use alternative options)
Homeschooling notification index (ehsnotf*ehsnote)
Index of corporate PAC regulation, candidate contributions=tcorpac*tpacconc*.00001
Index of corporate PAC regulation, party contributions=tcorpac*tpacconp*.00001
Index of grassroots PAC regulation, candidate contributions=tindpac*tpacconc*.00001
Index of grassroots PAC regulation, party contributions=tindpac*tpacconp*.00001
Individual health insurance: elimination riders banned? (1=yes, 0=no)
Individual market rate restrictions (3=pure community rating, 2.5=community rating with exceptions for some plans, 2=adjusted community rating, 1=age or health rating bands, 0.5=other rating bands, 0=none)
Kindergarten attendance required? (=1 if yes, =0 if no)
Licensing Index (sum of all variables)
Licensing of Health Plan Medical Directors (=1 if yes, =0 if no)
Limits on individual contributions to legislative candidates, per election year, in dollars (50,000 if no limit)
Limits on individual contributions to political parties, per election year, in dollars (200,000 if no limit)
Mandated external review for certain types of grievances? (=1 if yes, =0 if no)
Mandates direct access to providers? (=1 if yes, =0 if no)
Mandatory alcoholic beverage server training law (1=yes, 0=no)
Mandatory group conversion coverage for small firm employees? (=2 if yes and rating limits, =1 if yes and no rating limits, =0.5 if either continuation or conversion coverage must be offered, =0 if no)
Mandatory minimums for “low-level” marijuana cultivation or sale (not including special penalties for minor sales)? (if yes, number of years, 0 if no)
Mandatory registration of private schools? (=1 if yes, =0.5 if yes with broad exemptions, =0 if no)
Mandatory state approval or accreditation of private schools? (=1 if yes, =0.5 if yes with broad exemptions, =0 if no)
Mandatory state licensure of private school teachers? (=1 if yes, =0.5 if yes with broad exemptions, =0 if no)
Maximum possible prison term for any single marijuana offense, in years
Medical marijuana exception? (1=yes, 0.5=partial, 0=no)
Motorcycle helmet law covering all drivers? (1=yes, 0=no)
Open container law for automobile drivers or passengers? (1=yes, 0=no)
Pari-mutuel wagering legalized? (=1 if yes, =0 if no)
Personal injury protection (auto insurance) required? (1=yes, 0=no)
Physician-assisted suicide legalized? (=1 if yes, =0 if no)
Prevailing wage law? 1=yes, 0=no
Prostitution legalization local option? (1=yes, 0=no)
Public financing index=(tfullpub+(0.5*tpartpub)+(0.5*tpfpps))/(1+ttaxadd)
Ranking of State Liability Systems: “SCORE” (see source; higher scores indicate less tortious systems)
Raw milk sales legal for human consumption? (1=yes, 0=no)
Regulations for "smoker protection" in employment? (=1 if yes and insurance discrimination banned, =0.5 if yes but insurance discrimination or incentives to stop smoking allowed, =0 if no)
Regulations on Internet purchases? (=1 if yes, =0 if no or minimal)
Regulations on vending machines (=1 if banned, =0.5 if location restrictions, =0 if age restrictions only)
Regulatory Takings Prohibitions (=1 if yes)
Required subjects/curriculum for homeschoolers? (=2 if curriculum must be approved, =1 if subjects required, =0 if none)
Residuals of OLS regression of rincarc on rviol and rprop (Stata 9.0)
Residuals of OLS regression of rpolice on rviol (Stata 9.0)
Same-sex civil union, marriage, or domestic partnership (=1 if sstmrrge>0)
Short-term disability insurance required? 1=yes, 0=no
Slot games legal? (=1 if yes, =0 if no)
Small group health insurance market rate restrictions (3=pure community rating, 2=adjusted community rating, 1=rate bands, 0=no rating restrictions)
Smart Growth Plan (=1 if yes)
Smoking Ban - Bars (=1 if total or near-total, =0.5 if designated areas or local option or standalone bars only exempt, =0 if generally not banned, =0.75 for VA: no smoking areas are allowed in bars with 75+ capacity)
Smoking Ban - Private Workplaces (=1 if total, =0.75 if few exceptions, =0.5 if numerous exceptions/designated areas/local option, =0.25 if minimal regulation, =0 if no regulation)
Smoking Ban - Public Places (=1 if total or near-total, =0.5 if numerous exceptions/designated areas/local option, =0 if few or none)
Smoking Ban - Restaurants (=1 if total or near-total, =0.5 if segregated areas sometimes required or local option, =0 if no or few regulations, =0.75 for VA: no smoking areas allowed in restaurants with at least 50-person capacity, =0.25 for PA: nonsmoking areas required only for restaurants with at least 75-person capacity)
Sobriety checkpoints authorized? (1=yes, 0=no)
Social gambling allowed? (1=yes, 0=no)
Spirits tax rate (dollars per gallon of spirits, ad valorem rates added under assumption of 50 per gallon)
Standardized testing or other official evaluation required? (=2 if annual, =1 if periodic, =0 if none)
Standing referrals to specialists mandated? (=1 if yes, =0 if no)
State Wetland Program (=1 if yes)
State Wetland Regulatory Protection Statutes (=1 if yes)
Statewide ban on handheld cell phones? (1=yes, 0=no)
Statewide beer keg registration requirement, or kegs banned (1=yes, 0=no, 2=all kegs banned)
Strength of State Planning Role (=1 if weak, =2 if significant, =3 if substantial)
Tax credit/deduction law? (=2 if for parents, =1 if for donations to scholarship funds only, =0 if none)
Teacher qualifications required? (=1 if some qualifications required under all homeschooling options, =0 if some homeschooling options do not require teaching qualifications)
Telecommunication Deregulation (=1 if deregulation legislation passed and signed)
Total waiting period (slwp+slwp2)
Wine tax rate (dollars per gallon of wine, less than 14% alcohol by volume, ad valorem rates added under assumption of 50 per gallon)

Posted by OneEyedMan at 8:07 AM | Comments (0)

May 14, 2009

A cute story

It is August. In a small town on the South Coast of France, holiday season is in full swing, but it is the rainy season not much business is taking place. Everyone is heavily in debt. Luckily, a rich Russian tourist arrives in the foyer of the small local hotel. He asks for a room, puts a 100 Euro note on the reception counter, takes a key, and goes upstairs to inspect the room.

The hotel owner takes the banknote and rushes to his meat supplier, to whom he owes E100.

The butcher takes the money and races to his wholesale supplier to pay his debt.

The wholesaler rushes to the farmer to pay E100 for pigs he purchased some time ago.

The farmer triumphantly gives the E100 note to a local prostitute who gave him her services on credit.

The prostitute goes quickly to the hotel, as she owed the hotel for her hourly room use to entertain clients.

At that moment, the rich Russian comes back down to reception, informs the hotel owner that the proposed room is unsatisfactory, takes his E100 back, and departs.

There was no profit or income. But now no one has any debt and the residents of the small town look optimistically towards their future.

A plan for economic recovery

The paper "Liquidity Needs in Economies with Interconnected Financial Obligations" by Julio J. Rotemberg is essentially the story above expanded into a model of bank debts. It isn't a story about economic optimism. Instead it is a story about how relatively little outside liquidity injections can massively simplify a complex web of financial intermediation.

There is a problem with the story above as a lesson about economic optimism. Everyone has assets equal to their liabilities, so why would netting them to zero change their outlook about the future?

Posted by OneEyedMan at 2:54 PM | Comments (0)

What makes someone a professional?

In Don't Call Me Middle Class: I'm a Professional!, the WSJ discusses that many American workers think of themselves as professionals and not workers.

I see a different and simpler definition of a professional. A professional isn't someone with a lot of skills, education or measured by salary. No, a professional is someone who has a primary loyalty to their profession instead of their employer. The classic professions, the lawyer, the doctor, the architect, the professor, and the accountant, are all united by the fact that while they may have an employer, there is something more fundamental than their employer to their professional execution. Acts that it would be both legal or ethical for a someone outside the profession to do are often not for a professional. There may be new professions, and perhaps an actuary, a CFA, a teacher, an artist, or a pro-athlete meets this standard. However, I am skeptical that a recruiter, stylist, salesman, consultant, or a bureaucrat does.

Posted by OneEyedMan at 2:23 PM | Comments (0)

The games kids play

The Explorers program, a coeducational affiliate of the Boy Scouts of America that began 60 years ago, is training thousands of young people in skills used to confront terrorism, illegal immigration and escalating border violence — an intense ratcheting up of one of the group’s longtime missions to prepare youths for more traditional jobs as police officers and firefighters.

“This is about being a true-blooded American guy and girl,” said A. J. Lowenthal, a sheriff’s deputy here in Imperial County, whose life clock, he says, is set around the Explorers events he helps run. “It fits right in with the honor and bravery of the Boy Scouts.”

The training, which leaders say is not intended to be applied outside the simulated Explorer setting, can involve chasing down illegal border crossers as well as more dangerous situations that include facing down terrorists and taking out “active shooters,” like those who bring gunfire and death to college campuses. In a simulation here of a raid on a marijuana field, several Explorers were instructed on how to quiet an obstreperous lookout.

Scouts Train to Fight Terrorists, and More

In reading this, it occurred to me that this is essentially an elaborate version of cowboys and Indians, both in terms of the activities performed and the morality of the underlying acts. After having that idea and seeing it presented in this way, I like cowboys and Indians less, not this more.

Posted by OneEyedMan at 6:32 AM | Comments (0)

May 12, 2009

More on mutually assured destruction (MAD)

Long time readers know that I've talked about MAD a couple of times and found it wanting.

I came across an article in Slate today (though it is from January), The Letter of Last Resort, which examines the morality of MAD, with a special focus on the Jewish moral response. Certainly worth the read.

I see a distinction between MAD of Israel against Iran vs. the USA against the Soviets. Since the former will not cause the nuclear winter to fall on earth, it can be seen as a strategic choice rather than just plain revenge. By showing that the price of genocide is genocide, they make it vastly more expensive in the future to commit genocide (recall we discussed something similar in Was justice done?) . That could be a message important enough to deliver that it is worth paying a terrible price to in human suffering to do so.

On the other hand, if a response to a nuclear attack will result in the annihilation of all human life, there doesn't seem much point in doing so. Better to let evil tyrants rule the earth for a thousand years then to extinguish the light of humanity forever. In time all tyrannies will crumble.

Posted by OneEyedMan at 11:37 AM | Comments (0)

Are doctors overpaid?

At the heart of President Barack Obama's health-care plan is an insurance program funded by taxpayers, administered by Washington, and open to everyone. Modeled on Medicare, this "public option" will soon become the single dominant health plan, which is its political purpose. It will restructure the practice of medicine in the process.

Republicans and Democrats agree that the government's Medicare scheme for compensating doctors is deeply flawed. Yet Mr. Obama's plan for a centrally managed government insurance program exacerbates Medicare's problems by redistributing even more income away from lower-paid primary care providers and misaligning doctors' financial incentives.

Like Medicare, the "public option" will control spending by using its purchasing clout and political leverage to dictate low prices to doctors. (Medicare pays doctors 20% to 30% less than private plans, on average.) While the public option is meant for the uninsured, employers will realize it's easier -- and cheaper -- to move employees into the government plan than continue workplace coverage.

How ObamaCare Will Affect Your Doctor

Given that health insurance is tax-deductible when paid for by the employer and tax free for the employee, there is a subsidy of medical services that may inflate the wages of doctors beyond the competitive wage. If doctors are going to be expected to have the government absorb all the risk of medical care by funneling them customers and paying all their bills (look ma, no accounts receivable to collect!), then they deserve less for that too. I don't want state provided health care, but if we are going to have it, it isn't at all clear to me that the status-quo should be regarded with any special moral privilege.

One thing I do know, preventing free contracts among patients and doctors is wrong:

Right or wrong, more doctors will close their practices to new patients, especially patients carrying lower paying insurance such as Medicaid. Some doctors will opt out of the system entirely, going "cash only." If too many doctors take this route the government could step in -- as in Canada, for example -- to effectively outlaw private-only medical practice.

We must not prevent this.

Not just wrong, but risky. Policies should be regarded as experiments so we can see if they improve on the current policies. Beyond good role-out plans so we can bring statistical tools to bear on questions of effectiveness, we need to leave options in place so that policies can be reversed. If we socialize the entire system and forbid patients and doctors to go outside it, then it will far more expensive and difficult to return to a system of private care and individual cost bearing in the future. In fact, since we will be ignorant of the effectiveness of the private system, we may not know what we are missing.

Posted by OneEyedMan at 6:53 AM | Comments (0)

May 11, 2009

Laugh

Thanks to Mankiw. Weird how that show is funny again. Have I mentioned how great Star Trek was? Casting, story, and visuals were all excellent.

Posted by OneEyedMan at 1:42 PM | Comments (0)

May 10, 2009

Insider trading in credit default swaps

I just got a chance to read Credit-Default Swaps May Incite Regulators Over Insider Trading, a Bloomberg article from October of 2006 detailing some examples that suggested there was insider trading in the credit default swap (CDS) market. Getting CDS data is notoriously difficult because of the OTC nature of the data, but if you could get it there are all sorts of fascinating market efficiency and insider trading experiments you could do. Much of the hard work is already done because many cool natural experiments have already been done in stock market data, so all you have to do is port the experiments to the CDS data.

Any data rich banks out there want to hook the OneEyedMan up?

Posted by OneEyedMan at 11:33 AM | Comments (0)

May 9, 2009

How far to fall

I was looking at the Case-Shiller real estate price index today. Specifically, I took a look at the NYC area real estate prices. Even though the NYC market has fallen by about 17% from its peak (June 2006) , it would need to fall another 26% to hit the level it saw when I graduated college back in 2002. Said another way, we've only fallen back back to real estate prices in August of 2004. Does that mean that real estate prices have weathered the recession better than the stock market? It seems more likely that the real estate market has farther left to drop.

Posted by OneEyedMan at 7:21 PM | Comments (0)

May 8, 2009

Was there an editor asleep at The Atlatinc Monthly

Here, along a coast so empty that you can almost hear the echoing camel hooves of Alexander’s army, you lose yourself in geology.

Pakistan’s Fatal Shore

Um, maybe I'm missing some technical term of animal husbandry, but I thought that camels have legs ending in toes, not hooves.

Posted by OneEyedMan at 7:44 PM | Comments (1)

Make sure you measure the right thing

The bad news for this spring's college graduates is that they're entering the toughest labor market in at least 25 years.

The worse news: Even those who land jobs will likely suffer lower wages for a decade or more compared to those lucky enough to graduate in better times, studies show.
...
For example, a man who graduated in December 1982 when unemployment was at 10.8% made, on average, 23% less his first year out of college and 6.6% less 18 years out than one who graduated in May 1981 when the unemployment rate was 7.5%. For a typical worker, that would mean earning $100,000 less over the 18-year period.

The Curse of the Class of 2009

This effect could well be real, but this is not the proper way to measure it. The average students who graduate in December could well be worse than the ones graduating on time in May. For every diligent student graduating early there probably are a dozen lousy ones graduating late.

Posted by OneEyedMan at 7:41 PM | Comments (0)

Are radicals and extremeists of all kinds are loathsome or is it only the ones I disagree with

A friend of mine and I were walking back from lunch and we somehow got onto the topic of PETA, and we were furious at their behavior, especially how they give medical researchers a hard time compared with the more numerous and more cruel farming industry. He said some remark about how he hated extremists of all sorts. I said that it isn't extremism that bothers me nearly as much as just people just being violent and loud while being wrong. I was reminded of the Goldwater quotation that extremism in pursuit of liberty is no vice and moderation is no virtue. Both the Boston Tea Party were and the Basques are in civil insurrection, but the former was in pursuit of sensible values while the latter are not.

Posted by OneEyedMan at 1:43 PM | Comments (0)

May 7, 2009

The tax man cometh

I've had a modest amount of consulting work these last few years, but overall my student income has put me a pretty low tax bracket. I'd like to move more of my money into tax sheltered structures, but the university only offers me pre-tax savings vehicles.

If I were a tenured economics professor making $150,000 grand and expecting to make pretty much that forever, that'd be lovely. But no, I expect to make my current salary for only a few more years and then make a professional salary for a while, where my wealth builds until a retirement until I can retire a junior rich person.

That means a tax bracket that would be creeping ever higher, even if I didn't expect a run of decades of deficit spending to give everyone higher taxes in the years to come. Since I do expect higher taxes because of building wealth and more socialism, I don't want to make any pre-tax contributions. I want to pay my taxes now when they are cheap and earn my money tax free. I could probably use that preference and the current rate structure to figure out what that would imply about my expectations of American tax rates, but I'm feeling lazy because I just smashed my head in the bathroom when I dropped my glasses.

So instead of using the university's 403b plan or whatever, I'm thinking about opening up a Vanguard Individual 401(k), which is available to sole proprietor business like myself. I haven't sorted out all the details, and I probably need some decent tax advice to make sure that I contribute too much. One thing motivating me is the Plan Contribution Calculator at Vanguard. I put in my age, my business type, my Net business profit and jacked the Contribution percent all the way up to 25%. This suggested that I could be putting thousands more of my after tax income into tax sheltered savings. I was surprised at how much I could shelter. I know there are several self-employed Belligerati readers, so I thought they'd find this interesting.

Posted by OneEyedMan at 11:02 AM | Comments (0)

May 6, 2009

Democracy often stinks in poor countries

I am deeply fortunate to be born in a relatively free, rich, and un-corrupt country. I probably should spend more time being grateful for that fact, but I do make special time for it on Passover and Thanksgiving. I was reminded of that fact this morning when I came across The Dictator’s Handbook on Foreign Affairs. It lists the various ways that dictators rig elections, how well they work, and why they sometimes don't. An interesting and melancholy read. Take a look and be glad you don't live in a country like that.

Posted by OneEyedMan at 11:29 AM | Comments (0)

A good idea in a letter to the NY Times

Thirty-six years ago, as one of the first members of the National Health Service Corps, I was sent to western New Mexico, where there was a shortage of doctors.

Although delivering primary care to this medically needy population was probably the most meaningful period in my medical career, there were difficulties, including the lack of accessible specialty care. Seriously ill patients were transported 160 miles to the nearest tertiary medical center. I realized that most of my primary care services could have been delivered by a nurse practitioner.

Many of the medically underserved areas are geographically remote and lack educational and cultural opportunities that would encourage doctors’ families to set roots. Instead of sending doctors from afar, the government should train local nurses to become midlevel practitioners. By using a sophisticated electronic medical record, these practitioners could develop enhanced relationships with specialists in larger medical centers.

Where Did All the Doctors Go?

This partially confirms my belief that it is a bad idea to let doctors alone decide who is qualified to practice medicine. Allowing a continuum of training levels in medical care would lower medical costs and increase the availability of medical services.

All this is in response to Shortage of Doctors an Obstacle to Obama Goals

Posted by OneEyedMan at 8:39 AM | Comments (0)

May 4, 2009

More on effort vs. ability

Just yesterday I posted What makes a prodigy?, where I was skeptical that hard work is what differentiates geniuses from the rest of us. However, I do believe in the power of hard work as a way of improving anyone's life outcomes, even if I am skeptical that it can make any or even most or many above average people into geniuses. By coincidence, Malcolm Gladwell's piece in The New Yorker is also on the subject of the relative roles of strength as traditionally measured and work.

When they finally arrived at Aqaba, Lawrence’s band of several hundred warriors killed or captured twelve hundred Turks, and lost only two men. The Turks simply did not think that their opponent would be mad enough to come at them from the desert. This was Lawrence’s great insight. David can beat Goliath by substituting effort for ability—and substituting effort for ability turns out to be a winning formula for underdogs in all walks of life, including little blond-haired girls on the basketball court.

How David Beats Goliath When underdogs break the rules.

Like all Gladwell essays he passes off a few fabulous anecdotes and a nice statistics with little presentation of how exactly they are gathered and asking few of the difficult questions that a social scientist would ask about it they really tell the story he suggests they do. An immediate one comes to mind. Perhaps quality isn't measured the way you think it is. If mobility is more valuable then strength of arms, them stop counting soldiers and start counting speed. If full court press is more important than height, girls with the ability to run backwards and with great stamina will do better. I think this article is as much about how the right talents are often not what we think they are as it is about underdogs win about 30% of the time.

His articles do always make for a great read, so be sure to check it out.

Posted by OneEyedMan at 6:52 AM | Comments (0)

May 2, 2009

What makes a prodigy?

A few years ago in Self control is learnable we discussed that self-control is more important that IQ for grades, and that self control can be developed. David Brooks, in Genius: The Modern View has a few more things to say about the greater role of work over talent:

The key factor separating geniuses from the merely accomplished is not a divine spark. It’s not I.Q., a generally bad predictor of success, even in realms like chess. Instead, it’s deliberate practice. Top performers spend more hours (many more hours) rigorously practicing their craft.

See the article itself for more trained techniques (not inborn gifts) that make for geniuses.

My experience is that geniuses really do seem to run on different hardware. They seem to get things faster and more thoroughly than I do. To the extent that they practice more, I wonder if they do so because getting things easily makes it more pleasurable to practice.

Posted by OneEyedMan at 8:02 PM | Comments (0)

Interesting fact of the day

More generally, the authors find a broad inverse relationship between tax progressivity and welfare state efforts - the more progressive a country’s taxation system, the less likely that it has an active welfare state, and vice-versa. The causal argument goes that countries with regressive tax systems have found it easier to maintain welfare states against the pressures of globalization, because their tax base rests on a relatively immobile asset - labour.

Tax regressivity and the welfare state (number one in a series of enthralling blogpost titles)

References the following paper:
Taxation and the worlds of welfare

Posted by OneEyedMan at 1:31 PM | Comments (0)

Why are baseball gloves beige?

Wearing a glove to protect one's catching hand was not considered a manly thing to do in the years following the Civil War, when the game of baseball spread through the country with the speed of a cavalry charge. It's uncertain who was the first to wear a baseball glove; nominees include Charles G. Waite (or Waitt), who played first base for a professional Boston team in 1875, and Doug Allison, a catcher for the Cincinnati Red Stockings in 1869. Waite was undoubtedly concerned about his reputation; the gloves were flesh colored to make them less obvious.

How Products Are Made :: Volume 1 - Baseball Glove

Posted by OneEyedMan at 8:56 AM | Comments (0)

May 1, 2009

Something I never learned from a 2600 meeting

A MetroCard has two distinct magnetic fields that contain information, referred to as the primary and secondary fields. The MTA opted to use two fields so that the information encoded onto the card has "backup" storage in the event that a magnetic field is damaged. Based on the testimony of an MTA expert in this case, when a value-based MetroCard is swiped through the electronic eye of a turnstile, a computer reads both magnetic fields. If the MetroCard has monetary value remaining, the turnstile grants access and deducts the cost of the ride from the value of the card, amending the information stored on the magnetic strip to reflect the reduction in value. Thus, the expert explained, if a MetroCard is bought for $4 in value, that amount is initially encoded onto both the primary and secondary fields. When the card is first used for a $2 fare, the computer will deduct $2 from one of the fields, leaving the other field at $4. The next time the MetroCard is swiped for entry, the computer does not change the $2 field but instead reduces the $4 field to zero. Once one of the fields reads zero, the turnstile is not supposed to open. By utilizing this design methodology, which electronically leaves $2 of value on one of the magnetic fields even though the purchased value has been depleted to zero, the MTA intended to give riders "the benefit of the doubt" in the event that the magnetic strip was damaged. Thus, if the computer eye in the turnstile cannot determine the true remaining purchase value but can read the $2 backup field, one ride can be obtained. Individuals seeking free rides on the subway soon learned how to take advantage of the system's design. By creating a small bend or crease on the section of the magnetic strip where the zero-value field is contained, a person can obliterate that information so that, when swiped, the computer is unable to detect that the MetroCard is worthless, meaning no purchase value remains. When there is a strategically-placed crease or bend on the card, the turnstile computer will read the other field containing the $2 "backup" information, which gives the user of the card a free entry to the subway. Hence, a person can bend a valueless MetroCard and swipe it once, then use or sell the free ride at a discounted price by swiping it a second time (this is referred to as "selling swipes"). The ease of this type of alteration and its popularity among individuals who are willing to defraud the MTA contributed to considerable losses of revenue for the MTA -- it was estimated that as of 2005, fraudulent MetroCard use was costing the MTA approximately $16 million per year, the equivalent of about 8 million ride fares.

The People v. Jonathan Mattocks.
I couldn't find a picture of a properly bent MetroCard, but How to Hack the NYC Subway Metrocard has more precise directions.

As a teenager, I'd long speculated that MetroCards just contained an ID number which controlled a balance in a central server. I was surprised to learn that the balance was stored right there on the card. I wonder why they choose to do it that way. I assume my was was too slow. You might be able to detect where this sort of fraud/ forgery was happening using statistical forensics based on variation in the number of "please swipe again" and "please swipe again at this turnstile" messages there are by station entrance. They you could put up cameras or increase police presence in those areas.

Posted by OneEyedMan at 7:13 AM | Comments (0)