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November 12, 2008
Or maybe not
The other day I got all excited about the Chevy Volt as a car to change the world. Holman Jenkins' article in the WSJ (Obama's Car Puzzle) has made me completely revisit my hopes for what the serial hybrid electric car could archive. The introduction is one of the most scathing sends ups I've ever read.
You have in GM's Volt a perfect car of the Age of Obama -- or at least the Honeymoon of Obama, before the reality principle kicks in.Even as GM teeters toward bankruptcy and wheedles for billions in public aid, its forthcoming plug-in hybrid continues to absorb a big chunk of the company's product development budget. This is a car that, by GM's own admission, won't make money. It's a car that can't possibly provide a buyer with value commensurate with the resources and labor needed to build it. It's a car that will be unsalable without multiple handouts from government.
The first subsidy has already been written into law, with a $7,500 tax handout for every buyer. Another subsidy is in the works, in the form of a mileage rating of 100 mpg -- allowing GM to make and sell that many more low-mileage SUVs under the cockamamie "fleet average" mileage rules.
Even so, the Volt will still lose money for GM, which expects to price the car at up to $40,000.
We're talking about a headache of a car that will have to be recharged for six hours to give 40 miles of gasoline-free driving. What if you park on the street or in a public garage? Tough luck. The Volt also will have a small gas engine onboard to recharge the battery for trips of more than 40 miles. Don't believe press blather that it will get 50 mpg in this mode. Submarines and locomotives have operated on the same principle for a century. If it were so efficient in cars, they'd clog the roads by now. (That GM allows the 50 mpg myth to persist in the press, and even abets it, only testifies to the company's desperation.)
Hardly mentioned is the fact that gasoline goes bad after a few months. If the Volt is used as intended, for daily trips of 40 miles or less, the car's tank will have to be drained periodically and the gas disposed of.
Posted by OneEyedMan at November 12, 2008 7:42 PM
Comments
I honestly didn't have time to read the article, but from just what you posted here, I would call this an unreasonable hatchet job. I don't know what the production costs on the volt are, or look like, so I'm not going to comment about that.
As far as the car harvesting a tax subsidy of $7,500, I don't see why that is bad for GM. I agree that fleet average rules are retarded, but that's a government problem, not something that makes the volt fail.
I don't understand why it is called a "headache of a car", I mean, we can assume that like all first gen cars it will have some kinks to work out, but that's the price you pay for introducing a new model.
40 miles on 6 hours of charge is pretty much exactly what most people need. almost all of the commuters I know average well less than 40 miles a day, meaning that for most of the week, or perhaps months at a time they will be using no gas.
And finally, regarding gas going bad, there is a cheep additive that you can put in which prevents this problem. I realize that's a pain in the ass, but I imagine that a later model will just have that as another fluid, and squirt some into the tank whenever you fill up. (or better yet, a month after the last time you filled up)
As far as the R&D costs, it's unfair to spread those only across the volt, honestly those need to be spread across the volt and all of the later generations of plug-ins and plug-in hybrids that get made.
Oh and finally, I would like to point out that the pure electrics that were scrapped from a while back made (lots) of money on every lease, and had a waiting list a mile long. I'm still trying to figure out why they went away. (I have a nutty conspiracy theory, based on one of chan's conspiracy theories, but I wouldn't rant about it here)
Posted by: giblfiz
at November 16, 2008 11:22 AM
My understanding is that Honda covers the variable costs of making a Prius but including development costs make the firm lose money on every one they sell (IS THE PRIUS MAKING A PROFIT ?). That could be true for the Volt as well. Not withstanding that however, this car will be similar in size to the Prius and cost more than twice as much anyway.
Plug in electric cars do seem like the sort of solution we need, but it does have an infrastructure problem. While many Americans do have an outlet in a private garage which is likely to have a standard home outlet, many park outside or in larger garages without outlets. Over time that's going to change. If parallel hybrids catch on then we'll see pay by the watt outlets everywhere eventually, but until then that's going to scare off a lot of potential buyers.
I don't know much about the electric cars you mention, but I would caution against estimating the commercial viability of electric cars from the small scale roll outs of cars like the EV-1. Rich environmentalists in dense areas tended to be at the head of the line for those demonstrations, and that isn't at all representative.
Excellent point on the gas stabilizers. I didn't know such a product existed. I wonder what it does to your emissions and efficiency when you add it.
Posted by: TheOneEyedMan
at November 16, 2008 3:36 PM
The average American drives about 12,000 miles a year. That's about 32 miles a day, well less than the 40 that the PI-E's can go off of a 6 hour charge. That means that if your only going to do your commute and maybe stop off at a store or something you don't need a charger at your destination. There is no need for extra infrastructure, getting the first 40 miles per day free pretty much takes care of most driving for most people.
I strongly doubt that you will end up seeing any infrastructure develop in response to these things, because it will be totally unnecessary. Perhaps a few workplaces will run electric to a few spaces for their employees who commute more than 20 miles and drive a plug in electric, but that seems like a pretty small population.
Posted by: giblfiz
at November 17, 2008 5:15 PM
You need the infrastructure at your home or home parking garage, otherwise you can't charge your car for your light usage.
Posted by: TheOneEyedMan
at November 18, 2008 7:29 AM
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