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September 20, 2007

Is the surge working?

In Economic indicators of success in Iraq, James Hamilton of Econobrowser reviews the economic and statistical evidence to determine if the surge is working.

His conclusion is that evidence is that while the government may be more likely to fall apart (as measured by likelihood of defaulting on its debts), evidence of major oil investment suggests that complete social breakdown is unlikely. Given strong statistical evidence that the surge decreased civilian deaths, this might all be an indication that the markets have a growing skepticism that the US will stay in Iraq long enough to fix it, not a comment on the inherent tractability of straightening out Iraq.

Posted by OneEyedMan at September 20, 2007 10:37 AM


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