Belligerati

While I absolutely agree with looking at the idea of looking at terrorism from an economic viewpoint, I am much more inclined to agree with Cafe Hayek's assessment of the situation, which the post on "Different River" is a response to.
The key thing that is missing in the assessment made at different river is that even though pulling out of the middle east would demonstrate the effectiveness of terrorism and create a greater incentive, it would also significantly raise the cost for terrorist organizations. Our recent policies have made gathering recruits and fund-raising much much easier for terrorist organizations.
I don't know if the reduction in cost of recruitment is better or worse than the increased incentive that would be created be pulling out because of it, and I don't think anyone has the data to model that well. I do however think that if we exited in reaction to something else (or at the very least in a way that appeared to be in reaction to something else) it would once again raise the cost of fund raising and recruitment for the terrorist organizations without reinforcing the behavior.

Let's recall for a moment the reasons why the US military is posted in the middle east. They are in decreasing order, Oil, Israel and freeing the oppressed. Saddam Hussein invaded Iraq and was poised to control much of the world's oily production. Perhaps if appeased he would have controlled the entire middle east. Instead we destroyed his army and through him back into Iraq. We didn't go away. Indeed, he festered, bothering Iran, meeting with dirt bags, pursuing WMDs, and murdering his people.

Would withdrawing from Iraq solve any of the problems that necessitated our original intervention? I think not. More likely than not, a few years after we withdraw, we'd be back, intervening in a Kurdistan vs Turkey war, Trans Iran-Iraq vs Saudi Arabia, or something similar. Except this time they'd know we were a bunch of wimps that give up despite superior fire power. If you think this resistance is fierce, just imagine what islamo-fascism will be able to muster when then can remind potential recruits of their last victory.

So the burden on those who want to withdraw is to establish why we won't be back sometime soon.

All good points, however, I would like to call them out as not being part of the original question about the economics of terrorism. the economics of terrorism are of course only a small bit of the much larger model of this whole war, but it seems unfair to introduce the cost of things not related to terrorism (oil supply etc) into this particular area of discussion.
I sadly don't have the knowledge, time, or retorical skill to argue about the whole war and do anything but resort to the sort of pathos driven commentaries that I hate so much.

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